Nvidia: Будущее искусственного интеллекта

Well now, you see, folks don’t often hear tell of a James Anderson ’round these parts. But truth be told, he’s been charting stocks in Scotland for nigh on forty years, a right clever fellow at Baillie Gifford. Headed up their Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, he did, and managed to turn a penny or two—a grand total of seventeen hundred percent, if you please. Makes a fella wonder what he’s been doing all these years.

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Ищешь ракеты? Это не к нам. У нас тут скучный, медленный, но надёжный, как швейцарские часы, фундаментальный анализ.

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Mr. Anderson, he’s got a nose for these newfangled inventions, I’ll give him that. Spotted Netflix, Amazon, Tesla, and even Nvidia (NVDA) before they were all the rage. Smart man. Smart enough to know that when the wind changes, you best adjust your sails – or, in this case, your investment portfolio.

This artificial intelligence business, it’s the latest hum and buzz, ain’t it? Seems like every Tom, Dick, and Harry is claimin’ it’ll change the world. And if this fancy AI keeps on spreadin’ like wildfire, some folks are sayin’ Nvidia’s worth could swell to a staggering fifty trillion dollars by 2035. Fifty trillion! Sounds like a tale spun by a traveling salesman, I reckon. But Anderson, he offers some numbers to back up this mighty claim. A curious thing, predictions based on numbers.

Cornering the Market — And Quite a Corner It Is

Now, what’s stirred up this Nvidia’s fortune, you ask? Why, it’s those AI contraptions, of course! Since late 2022, when this generative AI became all the rage, the company’s market value has jumped tenfold – from $416 billion to a whopping $4.16 trillion. And what’s driving this frenzy? Their graphics processing units, or GPUs as they call them, are now the gold standard for all this fancy computer thinkin’. Seems like everyone needs one, bless their hearts.

Their business results have been somethin’ else, too. For two years straight, they’ve been growin’ at a rate that would make a rooster blush. Now, growth can’t go on forever, can it? So there’s been a bit of a slowdown, but the numbers are still impressive. Just last quarter, they pulled in $44.1 billion – a new record, mind you. And their profits jumped a good thirty-one percent.

Let me put that in perspective for you. That $44 billion they made in just a few months is more than they made in all of last year! A fella can hardly keep track of such numbers.

They say that AI could add as much as $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030. That’s a heap of change, friends. And if Nvidia can grab just a slice of that pie, their sales and profits will go even higher. It’s like panning for gold – you just hope to find a nugget or two, but sometimes you strike it rich.

Anderson calculates that the places where all this AI work is done – these data centers – are growing at a rate of sixty percent a year. If that keeps up for the next ten years, and Nvidia can hold onto their profits, he figures they’ll be makin’ about $1,350 in earnings per share and free cash flow of around $1,000. If that happens, folks, each share could be worth around $20,000, bringin’ their whole company value to… you guessed it… almost fifty trillion dollars. Astounding, isn’t it?

Advantages That Make You Scratch Your Head

Looking back at Mr. Anderson’s previous investments, well, they’re somethin’ to behold. Amazon’s stock has gone up by 227,600 percent since they first started sellin’ books online! Netflix and Tesla, they’ve both soared as well – 105,000 and 20,020 percent, respectively. But Anderson is quick to point out that it’s not a fair comparison. «They didn’t start from a position of strength,» he says, «they had to *earn* it.»

And that’s where Nvidia comes in. They’re already doin’ mighty well. They’re makin’ a good profit, and they’re the undisputed king of these data center GPUs. They hold a staggering ninety-two percent of the market, according to these IoT Analytics folks. Seems like they’ve cornered the market, as they say. And it’s not just their position, either. They’ve got «persistent exponential progress,» the competitive advantages in hardware and software, and a whole lot of smart people workin’ there. Sounds like a recipe for success, don’t it?

A Heap of Things Could Go Wrong, of Course

Now, let’s be clear. Even if everything goes as planned, a whole heap of things could still go sideways on Nvidia. AI might not take off the way folks expect. A competitor might invent a better way to do this AI business. Nvidia might stumble and fall. A sudden, unexpected event could throw everything into chaos. Tariffs could choke off trade and lead to a recession. The world, you see, is full of surprises, both good and bad.

The Right Question, Perhaps

Mr. Anderson, he’s quick to say that his fifty trillion dollar figure «isn’t a prediction, but just a *possibility* if this artificial intelligence thing works out and Nvidia keeps its lead.» He figures the chances of it happenin’ are slim – somewhere around ten to fifteen percent. Not exactly a sure thing, is it?

But I reckon the real question ain’t whether Nvidia can reach fifty trillion. The more important thing to consider is whether they’ll continue to innovate, to find new ways to use their technology, and to keep takin’ advantage of these new trends. And lookin’ at their track record, I’d say the answer is a resounding «yes.»

That’s why, for now at least, Nvidia stock remains a buy.

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2025-07-22 10:34